Let the (Social Security) Games Begin! 2010 Report Released
by Bruce Webb
Hot off the press. PDF of the 2010 Social Security Report: http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2010/tr10.pdf
News Release: http://www.ssa.gov/pressoffice/pr/trustee10-pr-alt.pdf HTML version: Social Security Board of Trustees: Long-Range Financing Outlook Remains Unchanged Boy that title blew me away, as did the initial numbers:
The Social Security Board of Trustees today released its annual report on the financial health of the Social Security Trust Funds and the long-range outlook remains unchanged. The combined assets of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust Funds will be exhausted in 2037, the same as projected last year. The Trustees also project that program costs will exceed tax revenues in 2010 and 2011, be less than tax revenues in 2012 through 2014, and then permanently exceed tax revenues beginning 2015, one year earlier than estimated in last year’s report. The worsening of the short-range outlook for the Social Security Trust Funds is due in large part to the recent economic downturn.
In the 2010 Annual Report to Congress, the Trustees announced:
The projected point at which the combined Trust Funds will be exhausted comes in 2037 – the same as the estimate in last year’s report. At that time, there will be sufficient tax revenue coming in to pay about 78 percent of benefits.
The projected point at which tax revenues will fall below program costs comes in 2010. Tax revenues will again exceed program costs in 2012 through 2014 before permanently falling below program costs in 2015 — one year sooner than the estimate in last year’s report.
The projected actuarial deficit over the 75-year long-range period is 1.92 percent of taxable payroll — 0.08 percentage point smaller than in last year’s report.
Over the 75-year period, the Trust Funds would require additional revenue equivalent to $5.4 trillion in present value dollars to pay all scheduled benefits.
“The impact of the current economic downturn continues to be felt by the Social Security Trust Funds,” said Michael J. Astrue, Commissioner of Social Security. “The fact that the costs for the program will likely exceed tax revenue this year is not a cause for panic but it does send a strong message that it’s time for us to make the tough choices that we know we need to make. I applaud President Obama for his creation of the Deficit Commission so we can start the national discussion needed to ensure that Social Security remains a foundation of economic security for our children and grandchildren.”
I’ll be back after I have, you know, actually read some of it (and checked some links).
Took you 22 minutes? Shiftless. Just shiftless.
Nope. -38 minutes. Official release time is thirteen minutes from now: 9 Pacific, Noon Eastern.
The word you are looking for is ‘shifty’.
“… it does send a strong message that it’s time for us to make the tough choices that we know we need to make” for a problem that is 75 years away ! How about first return to the Clinton-era tax rates to balance the budget (including eliminating the special treatment for capital gains or does the Constitution say “no taxation without perspiration” ?) before tackling a problems that is many years away ?
That language is basically boilerplate from previous Reports. But what are they going to say: “Hey we’ve been bullshitting you for 20 years with this ‘crisis’ shit. Sorry!” I am only about 17 pages in but already I see some backdown in the crisismongering language. It is subtle and I’ll need to do some side by side comparisons with some previous Reports, but they may be slowwalking that back.
H-Bob,
“return to the Clinton-era tax rates to balance the budget.”
Ha! as if the tax rate increase gets us back to even half of where we need to be….funny! It is a nice dream, and I as well wish it were ture.
Jimi, What does it do then, even if short?
jimi,
Thanks for the observation, I will take the liberty to finish it?
The US needs to return to Eisenhower type marginal rates. Clinton and Bush I were too low.
To implement the US constitution to define the common defense, not empire secuity.
To reduce the federal command economy and close the empires.
To stop plundering the treasury for corporate welfare.
Rdan,
Well here is what Laffer has to say about it.
http://online.wsj.com/article/NA_WSJ_PUB:SB10001424052748704113504575264513748386610.html
Here is what the Hertiage Foundation says about it.
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2010/03/Obamas-Capital-Gains-Tax-Hike-Unlikely-to-Increase-Revenues
The CBO says, “The shifting of gains from 2011 into 2010 will reduce
revenues modestly over that two-year period, as well as speed up their
payment. In later years, the reduced realizations will keep revenues from
rising in proportion to the increase in the tax rate. On net, we project that
federal revenues will increase in response to the higher tax rates, but that
reduced realizations will temper that increase.”
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/106xx/doc10629/09-25-Letter_Bilbray.pdf
My personal opinion is that in the short term we will see even more damage to GDP growth and employment because of the tax rate increase, but if growth is brought back to trend line levels then revenues will increase enough to control the deficit, but I view that sitatution several years away, and I think our hole gets dug much deeper than is necessary before we get there, just appease a populous viewpoint.
Thanks. Since this post is not about the taxes I will post a separate piece on thoughts on the changes, including a variety of sober statements from others. I don’t want to hijack this one on SS.
Professor Galbraith says EXPAND Medicare and SS!!
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-08-02/james-k-galbraith-calls-for-expanding-entitlement-programs/2/
mindig a hulyeseg vagy a nok http://haheh.de