Retail enthusiasm?
Barry Ritholz keeps us abreast of retail spending:
Last month, I published a post on the nonsense that is Black Friday sales (No, Black Friday Sales Were Not Up 16% (not even 6%). That evolved into a Washington Post article, Did Black Friday save the season? Beware the retail hype.
Today, we learn that many breathless forecasts from NRF to ShopperTrak were so much hot air and empty hype: Sales were flat to up only modestly. Total U.S. retail sales in November gained only 0.2%, following a 0.6% October. Even that month was revised downwards.
Retailers themselves may pay the price for their massive discounting: Not only might their quarterly earnings be affected by the margin pressure, but they continually train investors shoppers to hunt for discounts. Retail therapy and sport shopping are being replaced by extreme couponing and sites like Living Social and Groupon.
…
See also:
Retail Sales in U.S. Climbed Less Than Forecast (Bloomberg)U.S. retail sales rise slightly in November (Marketwatch)
mea culpa, dan; the 3.2% Nov gain i reported was from a USA today story referencing “Retail Metrics”…at least i dont feel so bad about the black friday number i reported, as everyone had it; mine also came from ShopperTrak via calculated risk…
Financial Armageddon was on this 11/27: http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2011/11/not-so-good.html
I can tell you that around here in RIland, October was the worst month since we have owned the flower shop (11 years). It was down 30% from our monthy average. Right out of the blue, 30%. No month has been that bad. My undertaker friend said he was going to have to cut his own pay.
ICSC reported the smallest y/y gain in chain store sales all year in November. That was known prior to retail sales coming out. Retailers began selective, aggressive discounting very early this year, which would keep the $ value of sales down, even if it boosted unit sales. Folds around here were all sitting around wondering why the median estimate for non-auto sales was so strong ahead of the release. The relative weakness of auto sales was a bit of a surprise, I think, but ex-auto sales were not.
By the way, ICSC is now clocking a m/m decline in December sales through the 10th, relative to the same period in November. Unless there is a mighty rise in sales the final few days, or a far bigger batch of Ho Ho FedEx this year than last, December is going to be soft, too.
ICSC reported the smallest y/y gain in chain store sales all year in November. That was known prior to retail sales coming out. Retailers began selective, aggressive discounting very early this year, which would keep the $ value of sales down, even if it boosted unit sales. Folds around here were all sitting around wondering why the median estimate for non-auto sales was so strong ahead of the release. The relative weakness of auto sales was a bit of a surprise, I think, but ex-auto sales were not.
By the way, ICSC is now clocking a decline in December sales through the 10th, relative to the same period in November. Unless there is a mighty rise in sales the final few days, or a far bigger batch of Ho Ho FedEx this year than last, December is going to be soft, too.
Being in a store on black friday is like playing fantasy hockey.Everybody is trying to get the “puck“ but only a few get it.
Being in a store on Black Friday is like playing fantasy hockey. Everybody is trying to get the puck but only a few are get it.