2012 Social Security (and Medicare) Reports: due Monday
If past file conventions hold true these links should work immediately on release of the 2012 Social Security and Medicare Reports Monday morning.
This link SHOULD get you to the CURRENT summary. Which means 2011 until it means 2012. When it does.
Social Security and Medicare Summary Report BTW from all evidence 99% of all Social Security reports found in the lamestream media (because on this one the Snow Queen is right) are cribbed from the Summary which also is much the same as the introduction to the full Report. But the real juice is in the Tables and Figures which among other things show alternate projections besides the standard ‘Intermediate Cost alternative’ always cited.
I haven’t posted at AB for a while and Blogger is all different so the FSM Him/Her/Itself knows how and whether this will render and beyond that whether the links will even work tomorrow. Until then you are pretty much guaranteed a 404 Error either way. Except the first link should get you to the 2011 Summary in the meanwhile.
i’ve sent feedback on the changes to google several times…interesting how many different ways you can say “blogger sucks” when you’re pissed off…
http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TR/2011/index.html
Checked over to my old company’s rag at socialsecurity.gov and the new annual report isn’t up yet. But, the link for the 2011 report is there. FYI. NancyO
http://www.c-span.org/Events/US-Gauges-Fiscal-Condition-of-Social-Security-Medicare/10737430058/
Here it is on CSPAN at 1:45PM Today, a press conference with Sebellius and someone from Treasury announcing the annual report. NancyO
Press conference at 1:45 Eastern. Suspect the Report will be released on the web in time for reporters to skim it prior and in previous years 1 PM Eastern 10 AM Pacific have been pretty typical release times for such things.
Press conference at 1:45 Eastern. Suspect the Report will be released on the web in time for reporters to skim it prior and in previous years 1 PM Eastern 10 AM Pacific have been pretty typical release times for such things.
worth noting that the summary is a lying political statement. and i suspect the press conference will be all spin all the time.
the issue is not the alternative projections. the issue is that when you do the actual math the “by the far the most probable” projection does not mean THE DEATH OF SOCIAL SECURITY… either sooner or later when the TRUST FUND RUNS OUT. The Trillions of Dollars of Unfunded Deficit… when you do the actual math… turns out to mean an increase in the payroll tax on the order of half a dollar per week each year will enable Social Security to continue to pay “promised benefits” forever.
That is the workers, the people who will get those benefits, can pay for them themselves, if the politicians will let them. The tax needs to go up a tiny amount because those same workers are going to be living longer than their grandparents and they will want more money in retirement to keep up with the living standards they created while they were working.
Please forgive me if I say it again… you won’t hear it anywhere else:
There is NO problem with Social Security. It does not add to the deficit. Never has. Never will. The workers can pay for their own benefits, in advance, with a tiny raise in their tax… which is really their savings, protected from inflation by pay as you go financing. It is not “government money.”
Forty cents per week per year.
NO need to cut benefits. No need to raise the retirement age. No need to means test. And no need to raise taxes on the rich.
http://www.ssa.gov/pressoffice/pr/trustee12-pr.html
Didn’t see the presser with Sibelius and Geithner on CSPAN at 1:45P. However, did find the linked press release from SSA Headquarters. Gee. Wouldn’t you know it. The TF isn’t going broke 3 years sooner. Tsk. Tsk. NancyO
Well actually the TF IS going ‘broke’ three years earlier. The question is why. I have only scanned the Report and very selectively at that. But the key section is IV.B7 http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2012/IV_B_LRest.html#419506 with accompaning Table IV.B9 Table IV.B9.—Reasons for Change in the 75-Year Actuarial Balance,
Based on Intermediate Assumptions
The change in actuarial balance for OAS in isolation, and mind you this is a one year change from last year’s Report is .37% of payroll of which .20% is changes in ‘Economic Data and Assumptions’. The explanation for this is as follows:
“The Trustees changed one of the ultimate economic assumptions this year — the annual rate of change in average hours worked for the future. The Trustees now assume a decline in average hours worked of 0.05 percent per year, rather than no change as they assumed last year. This change decreased the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 0.07 percent of taxable payroll. Reasons for the change in the ultimate average hours worked include: (1) establishing consistency with the projections of an aging workforce; and (2) the belief that increasing productivity is likely to result in workers’ desire to enjoy some of these productivity gains in the form of more leisure. In addition, historical data and trends support this reduction in the assumed average hours worked. See Section V.B.3 for details. The change in this assumption lowers the ultimate annual real wage differential by 0.05 percentage point from last year’s report, with the level of the differential changing from 1.17 percentage points to 1.12 percentage points.
In addition, updated starting values and changes in near-term economic growth rate assumptions combined to decrease the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 0.14 percent of taxable payroll. Two specific changes to starting values and growth assumptions account for this decrease in the actuarial balance. First, starting values for 2011 resulted in higher benefit levels and lower payroll taxes for 2012 than those projected in last year’s report. Price inflation in 2011 was higher than expected, with the cost-of-living adjustment to benefits in December 2011 being 2.9 percentage points higher than assumed in last year’s report. Furthermore, the average level of taxable earnings for covered workers in 2011 was about 1.6 percent lower than estimated in last year’s report. The higher-than-expected adjustment to benefits for 2012, combined with a 2.0 percent lower-than-expected level of average taxable earnings for 2012, increased annual cost rates for at least the next 20 years. The second main reason for the decrease in the actuarial balance is the lower projected real interest rates on trust fund investments during the first 10 years in this year’s report. Real interest rates for new investments during 2011 are significantly lower than projected in last year’s report, and these lower real interest rates on new investments continue for several years before reaching their ultimate levels.”I’ll turn this over to you all. The first question that springs to my mind is why we would expect a “lower-than-expected level of average earnings” would be accompanied by decisions to […]
Yes
workers will want to enjoy some of these productivity gains in the form of more leisure.
just don’t let them retire to enjoy it.
i used to think the numbers at least were honest. but if they can import that kind of rationalization into jiggering with the numbers, it’s all a fraud.
meanwhile we can be sure that a smaller number of workers will reduce output
just the way the black death reduced the price of labor.
What do they mean by “leisure?” Do they mean not working at all or working fewer hours? Or will the gains in productivity be the result of greater automation? Wages have remained the same or have decreased for some groups over the last 10 years, but people have worked longer hours if the hours were available to them. Meanwhile, income has been steadly redistributed upward. Not only that, but people are forgoing lunches, breaks and days off for fear of getting fired. So, where is this leisure idea coming from? Any clue in the stuff you have seen? NancyO
Of course the government is going to downplay the risks associated with our path. I really feel though for the senior citizens on fixed incomes who will suffer from a depreciating dollar and a debt that is a veritable bubble. I’m going to check out the latest reports and see what I can make of them.
Joseph
what risks associated with WHOSE path?
SS is inflation adjusted so it’s not “fixed income.”