Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

2024 Election Life and Death Game Theory: Post- Conventions (full text)

This is the easiest one. No possibility of changes. It’s Biden/Harris v. Trump/Sycophant. For Biden, the alternative is clear: the race would be between Kamala Harris and DJT. Credit where due: Biden has reconfirmed on multiple occasions that he does not intend to replace Harris with Sherrod Brown the Mythical Generic Democrat with No Baggage, […]

2024 Life and Death Game Theory Interlude: Voting is An Affirmative Action

If You Choose Not to Decide, You May be an American Restating the premise of my earlier post: Voting is an affirmative action. The more difficult voting is, the more turnout will be reduced. A voter in Oregon needs only to fill out and mail a ballot at any point over a period of time […]

We’re Happy, Free, Confused, and Lonely at the Same Time

Then I really was going to skip today, even as–indeed, because–it is the 50th anniversary of 11 September. The original 11 de Septiembre, that is. Once is history, twice is parody. Feuerbach, as with Marx, was an optimist. Chile took only 17 years to get rid of Pinochet, and they did it at the ballot […]

Free Lunches, Portfolio Allocation, and Equity Premia: Part 1

TANSTAAFL. There Ain’t No Such Thing as a Free Lunch. Someone pays, somehow. The standard textbook example is pilots who refill their plane at a gas station that offers them a “free” steak dinner while charging five cents a gallon more than another station at the same airport. The pilot and co-pilot get $50 dinners […]