Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Regional Fed surveys confirm manufacturing rebound: services, not so much

 – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I looked at the economically weighted ISM manufacturing and services indexes, pointing out that they have shown a rebound this year. Today let’s take a brief look at the regional Fed manufacturing and services indexes. Below are the manufacturing and services indexes, averaged over the four Fed districts whose […]

The V28 Model Balances the Differences Between Medicare Advantage and Traditional Medicare Plans

This is not new news. It goes back for years. Medicare Advantage costs more than Medicare. Much of this is due to price setting. Advantage plans will receive overpayments of approximately $76 billion Center for American Progress above what the same care would cost in traditional FFS Medicare. This is nothing new. It has been […]

We must be better

“In 2017, Roy Moore was accused of sexual misconduct with teenage girls, including one who was fourteen at the time of the alleged assault. Nine women came forward. The reporting was extensive and documented. The Republican Party of Alabama endorsed him anyway. The President of the United States endorsed him. He lost by less than […]

Scenes from the June jobs report: a weak but improving economy

– by New Deal democrat There’s no important new economic news today, so let’s take a somewhat deeper dive into last Thursday’s employment report for June. To cut to the chase, this is of a piece of my “Big Picture” narrative from Friday in which I wrote that most of the signals suggest and economy coming […]

How Invisible Capital Gains Drive Extreme U.S. Wealth Concentration

“How Invisible Capital Gains Drive Extreme U.S. Wealth Concentration: Evidence from Balance-Sheet-Complete Haig-Simons Accounting” Steve Roth @ Wealth Economics A dominant economic fact of the past half century is the extreme and increasing concentration of U.S. wealth into the hands of ever-fewer people, families, and dynasties, and the corporations (including banks, insurers, major media companies, […]

The Trump slippery slope

My postdoc mentor used to say “We don’t compare ourselves to the worst, we compare ourselves to the best.” Does that aphorism apply in politics? “POLITICO REPORTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON that Graham Platner’s ex-girlfriend said he “forced her to have sex with him nearly five years ago despite her repeated objections.” Immediately after the story […]

Quote of the day

“Guns don’t kill people. People kill people.” Well no shit, Sherlock. We want mandatory safety classes for people, not guns. We want more background checks of people, not guns. We want stricter negligence penalties imposed on people, not guns. If you’re stupid enough to think activists are pissed off at guns, you’re too stupid to […]

The economically weighted ISM indexes for June show continued growth, equipoise in employment, and still strong inflation at the producer level

 – by New Deal democrat The economically weighted ISM manufacturing + services indexes have become one of my favorite datapoints. In particular, in the past year they have been an excellent dashboard for the state of the US economy as a whole, both as a coincident and short leading indicator. Last summer they accurately suggested that […]