Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Preliminary evidence that both business expansion – and widespread inflation – have continued in June

 – by New Deal democrat  Yesterday, in addition to the retail sales report, general business sales and inventory were reported – but unfortunately only through April. Nominally, sales (red in the graph below) increased 1.2% while inventories increased 0.5%: Here is the longer term look at total business sales and inventories: In case it isn’t […]

Quote of the day

Struggling with complicated truths about what has made our ease possible is not a Trumpist thing. To some degree, it has often not been an American thing. As Kevin Levin, who writes the newsletter Civil War Memory, put it this week, “For generations, the history of slavery and emancipation has been minimized, distorted, or simply […]

Trump’s War

“Obama’s Museum, Trump’s War, & the NCAA’s Latest Sports Scandal,” Kareem Takes on the News “Trumps’War“ Summary:  The U.S.-Iran deal announced this week ends roughly five-and-a-half weeks of intense military conflict plus two additional months of uneasy truce, with the primary concrete outcome being the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping. President […]

Democrats Get Their Fair Share of Billionaire Donations

This should not be much of a surprise to anyone. Unless they are independently wealthy (some are), I would expect Dems to secure their portion of donations from the politically interested. However, it appears people had more interest in Republicans this time. Trump cleaned up with three times the amount Kamala Harris received. This opens […]

More evidence for the re-emergence of residual seasonality in jobless claims, but still very positive

– by New Deal democrat  From 2023 through midyear 2025, there was a distinct pattern of unresolved post-pandemic seasonality to jobless claims, which rose in the first half of the year, and then declined in the second half. Beginning at the end of June last year, though, there was a “change of regime in jobless claims numbers,” […]